The Looming Threat to Marriage Equality: Why We Must Stay Vigilant
Ten years after the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalised same-sex marriage nationwide, marriage equality in the United States is once again under threat. Conservative activists, religious-right organisations, and anti-LGBTQ+ politicians are openly pushing to overturn marriage rights for LGBTQ+ couples, challenging the legal foundation that protects millions of families.
For many in the LGBTQ+ community—including non-binary people, transgender people, and queer couples—this renewed assault is not entirely surprising, especially in the wake of the 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade. Yet it remains deeply alarming. A rollback of marriage equality would directly impact not only same-sex couples but anyone outside the traditional cisgender male–cisgender female marriage model.
In this post, we’ll explore the latest developments threatening LGBTQ+ marriage rights, identify who is driving these efforts, and assess their likelihood of success. Most importantly, we’ll share strategic, actionable steps to respond without panic or fearmongering.
The fight for marriage equality is far from over, and now is the time to stay informed, united, and prepared.
Renewed Threats to Same-Sex Marriage in 2025
In August 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court was formally asked to reconsider and overturn its landmark ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that legalised same-sex marriage nationwide. The challenge comes through a high-profile legal case involving Kim Davis, the former Kentucky county clerk who famously refused to issue marriage licences to same-sex couples.
Davis, who was briefly jailed in 2015 for contempt of Court, has now petitioned the Court, claiming her religious beliefs should shield her from liability for denying marriage licences. In that petition, her attorney labelled the Obergefell decision “egregiously wrong” and a “legal fiction” that must be overturned. This marks the first direct challenge to marriage equality at the Supreme Court since the Obergefell decision.
Davis’s petition is just one element of a coordinated campaign by anti-LGBTQ+ forces to roll back marriage rights. In the first half of 2025 alone, at least nine U.S. states (Idaho, Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas) introduced measures aimed at undermining same-sex marriage rights. Five states passed resolutions explicitly urging the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell, while four others proposed “covenant marriage” bills defining marriage exclusively as “one man, one woman,” implicitly excluding LGBTQ+ couples. These measures are symbolic for now, as Obergefell remains a binding law; however, they signal a strategic, long-term effort to dismantle marriage equality protections.
In June 2025, the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest Protestant denomination in the U.S., voted to make overturning Obergefell a top priority. And the push has judicial backing: Justice Clarence Thomas, in his concurrence in Dobbs v. Jackson (the case that overturned Roe v. Wade), urged the Court to “reconsider” past rulings, including Obergefell and Lawrence v. Texas. Justice Samuel Alito has also signalled interest in revisiting the marriage ruling.
Who Is Driving the Push to Overturn Marriage Equality?
The rollback effort is powered by a familiar alliance of religious-right activists, conservative legal organisations, and Republican lawmakers. Davis’s legal team is led by Mat Staver of Liberty Counsel, a Christian advocacy group with a long track record of opposing LGBTQ+ rights. Republican legislators in multiple states are advancing bills to test the limits of marriage equality, while powerful religious groups like the Southern Baptist Convention openly promote “traditional marriage” policies.
President Donald Trump, who previously appointed three of the Court’s current conservative justices, has hinted at rolling back LGBTQ+ protections prior to re-election. Meanwhile, Jim Obergefell himself has warned that “same-sex unions could be erased” as a recognised right during Trump’s second term.
Where the Law Stands Today
Despite these political and legal manoeuvres, Obergefell v. Hodges is still the law of the land, and same-sex couples retain the constitutional right to marry in all 50 states. State-level resolutions and bills cannot overturn a Supreme Court ruling. As Lambda Legal stresses, these moves are currently “legally meaningless” as they “do not change the law” and “cannot undo your marriage.”
But symbolism matters. These bills and resolutions lay the legal and cultural groundwork for a future in which marriage equality could be dismantled state by state, much like abortion rights after Roe v. Wade. This is why it’s critical for the LGBTQ+ community, and especially our allies, to take these threats seriously, respond strategically, and keep fighting to protect same-sex marriage rights.
Why Marriage Equality Matters to LGBTQ+ Communities
For those of us in the LGBTQ+ community, including non-binary (enby) people, the freedom to marry is not an abstract legal concept; it has a direct, tangible impact on our lives. Marriage equality means we can marry the person we love and access the same rights, protections, and dignity that cisgender heterosexual couples have always received. These aren’t symbolic benefits; they’re life-changing in moments that matter most.
Marriage equality safeguards:
Hospital visitation rights when your spouse is ill or injured
Inheritance rights without costly legal battles
Parental rights and adoption recognition for your children
Tax benefits that can ease financial strain
Health insurance coverage and shared benefits in employment
Immigration rights for bi-national couples
As of 2025, over 823,000 same-sex couples in the U.S. are married, and nearly one in five is raising children. Each of these families relies on the stability and legal security that marriage provides. If those protections were stripped away or fragmented into a state-by-state patchwork, the consequences would be devastating, both emotionally and legally, as well as financially.
Marriage Equality Goes Beyond “Gay and Lesbian”
It’s essential to remember that same-sex marriage is not just a “gay men and lesbian women” issue. Many transgender and non-binary people are in marriages or want to marry. Real-life relationships don’t always fit neatly into binary categories.
Consider:
A non-binary person with a legal “X” gender marker
A transgender person whose documents don’t match their lived gender
Couples where one or both partners are gender-diverse
If marriage laws revert to “one man, one woman,” these couples could face discrimination or legal uncertainty. Would a non-binary person even be allowed to marry if they don’t legally identify as male or female? The risk is real.
The Scale of the Threat
A recent analysis found that 31 U.S. states still have “dormant” same-sex marriage bans. These are constitutional amendments or statutes that have been unenforceable only because Obergefell v. Hodges overrode them. If Obergefell were overturned:
433,000 married same-sex couples living in those states could see their rights challenged
305,000 unmarried same-sex couples could lose the ability to marry locally
That’s hundreds of thousands of families, many of which are raising children, suddenly treated as second-class citizens in their communities.
Why It Matters for Non-Binary People
From an enby perspective, marriage equality is also about recognising our existence and relationships. Non-binary people already face legal erasure and underrepresentation in most institutions. The fight for LGBTQ+ marriage rights is part of a broader struggle for our identities to be respected.
When the law says any two people can marry regardless of gender, it acknowledges that relationships outside the cisgender binary are equally valid. Rolling back that progress would send a damaging message: that only some love counts, and that queer and gender-diverse partnerships are less worthy of recognition.
For us, it’s about more than legal protections. It’s about dignity, belonging, and visibility. Our community fought for decades to be treated as equal under the law. We remember life before 2015, when marriage rights were denied to us entirely. We will not go back.
Could They Really Overturn Same-Sex Marriage? (Lessons from Roe v. Wade)
It’s a fair question: can Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned? Could marriage equality actually be undone by the U.S. Supreme Court?
Just a few years ago, most Americans would have confidently said “no.” Obergefell was widely viewed as settled law, and same-sex marriage rights had quickly become mainstream. But the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, which ended nearly 50 years of federal abortion protections, proved that no constitutional right is untouchable.
The Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which overturned Roe, showed that a determined conservative majority is willing to dismantle precedent. In his concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas explicitly called for the Court to “reconsider” past rulings, including Obergefell and Lawrence v. Texas (which struck down sodomy laws). That was an open invitation to legal activists: bring us a case to challenge these rights.
Public Opinion Is Strongly in Favour – For Now
There is, however, a key difference that offers hope: marriage equality is deeply popular among the public. As of 2023–2025, about 70% of Americans support same-sex marriage, an all-time high and up from 60% in 2015. Support has held steady at this level, creating a solid majority consensus. Even among Republicans, support was above 50% until a recent dip (now at 41%), reflecting rising political polarisation.
Beyond polls, marriage equality has become part of American life. Millions have attended the weddings of gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, and non-binary friends and family. More than half a million LGBTQ+ couples have married since 2015, embedding the right into the cultural and social fabric. As one legal analyst put it, “Same-sex marriage is woven into American life, and the Supreme Court knows it.”
Why Legal Experts Say an Overturn Is a “Long Shot” – For Now
Most legal experts consider an immediate, outright overturn of Obergefell unlikely. Kim Davis’s current petition faces steep odds: every lower court has rejected her claims, and even conservative appellate judges ruled she cannot use religious freedom as a shield for refusing marriage licences. The plaintiffs won damages against her, and their attorney has said Davis’s arguments “do not merit further attention” from the Supreme Court.
To hear the case, at least four justices must agree. We can assume Thomas and Alito are “yes” votes. But court-watchers believe Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett along with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Neil Gorsuch may be reluctant to reopen a politically explosive fight that could damage the Court’s legitimacy. As one analyst said, “There is no world in which the Court takes the case as a straight gay marriage case right now.” If they take it, it’s more likely to be a narrower legal issue, such as whether government officials can claim qualified immunity or broader religious exemptions.
The “Long Slog” Strategy
Even without an immediate reversal, the Court could chip away at LGBTQ+ rights incrementally, aka, a long-slog strategy. This might involve expanding religious liberty carve-outs that weaken anti-discrimination protections or creating loopholes for officials to refuse services to same-sex couples. Some conservative legal strategists have admitted they’d prefer gradual erosion over a sudden, politically risky overturn.
Why Complacency Is Dangerous
Despite current legal realities, complacency is not an option. Before 2022, even many in the pro-choice movement believed Roe v. Wade would never fall until it did. As Jim Obergefell himself warns: “Those who think equal marriage rights are safe are fooling themselves. It could unravel very quickly.”
Future changes to the Court’s makeup, shifting public opinion, or a more favourable political climate could give opponents of marriage equality the opening they want. And they will continue to try: introducing bills, filing lawsuits, and building the legal framework for a potential repeal. The fight for LGBTQ+ marriage rights is ongoing, and there’s no point where we can “set it and forget it.”
What Happens If Marriage Equality Is Overturned?
Let’s confront the worst-case scenario: what if the U.S. Supreme Court actually overturns Obergefell v. Hodges? The immediate effect would be that marriage rights for same-sex couples would revert to individual state control.
A Patchwork of Marriage Laws Across the U.S.
Much like the post-Roe v. Wade landscape for abortion rights, we’d see a patchwork system:
Progressive states with strong LGBTQ+ protections would continue to issue and recognise same-sex marriage licences.
Conservative states, particularly those with existing constitutional bans or “zombie laws”, could quickly reinstate marriage bans.
Before Obergefell in 2015, 35 states still had laws or constitutional amendments defining marriage as exclusively between “one man and one woman.” Those laws were never repealed in many places, meaning they could snap back into effect if the federal precedent were to disappear.
The Fate of Existing Marriages
Legal experts agree that an overturn would not nullify existing marriages. Couples married while Obergefell was in effect would remain legally married, even Kim Davis’s petition acknowledges this “grandfathered” status.
Additionally, the Respect for Marriage Act (RMA), passed in 2022, provides a vital safety net:
The RMA requires all states and the federal government to recognise marriages of same-sex and interracial couples that were lawfully performed in any state.
This means that even if your home state bans same-sex marriage, it must still legally recognise one performed elsewhere.
However, while this protects recognition, it does not guarantee local access. For example, a couple in Texas (which has a dormant ban) might have to travel to New York or California to marry, then return home to their state to acknowledge it. This creates serious inequities and logistical barriers, something most heterosexual couples never face.
The Real-World Impact on Couples
Even with RMA protections, an overturn would cause:
Travel burdens for couples needing to marry in another state
Legal uncertainty in hostile states where counties or businesses might refuse recognition
State-level benefit gaps for out-of-state marriages
Increased discrimination and stigma in daily life
Risks to Parental Rights and Family Security
A rollback could also jeopardise parental rights. In many states, a marriage certificate helps secure recognition for both parents in a same-sex couple. If a state stops recognising those marriages, the legal status of a non-biological parent could be questioned.
Advocates already recommend second-parent adoptions or other legal safeguards, but in a hostile legislative climate, these protections become even more essential.
And the danger doesn’t end there: overturning Obergefell could embolden efforts to challenge other LGBTQ+ rights, including Lawrence v. Texas (which struck down sodomy laws) or anti-discrimination protections through broad religious exemptions.
Possible Pushback and Protections
Not all states would move to restrict marriage. Some would likely:
Pass their laws or constitutional amendments protecting marriage equality (Nevada already enshrined it in 2020).
Leverage corporate and economic pressure to maintain inclusivity.
Use public opinion, which now consistently sits around 70% in favour of same-sex marriage, to block discriminatory measures.
At the federal level, further legislation is possible; however, a constitutional amendment guaranteeing marriage equality nationwide would be politically challenging. Still, the upheaval from an overturn could prompt even some moderate opponents to resist a total rollback.
The Bottom Line
If Obergefell falls, the U.S. would become a two-tier country for LGBTQ+ families – full rights in some states, legal uncertainty in others. It’s a future we must work to prevent. However, if it does happen, couples will need to navigate a complex landscape of state-by-state marriage laws, federal recognition rules, and new legal strategies to protect their families.
How We Can Fight Back – Action Steps to Protect Marriage Equality
The threat to same-sex marriage rights can feel overwhelming, but fear alone changes nothing. Action is empowering. Our goal isn’t to panic – it’s to prepare, persevere, and protect our families. Here’s how to respond strategically to the potential overturn of Obergefell v. Hodges:
1. Stay Informed and Educate Others: Knowledge is power in the fight for LGBTQ+ marriage rights. Keep up with reputable updates on:
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Kim Davis case
New state bills targeting marriage equality
Legal analysis from credible sources like Lambda Legal or GLAD
Share facts with friends, family, and community networks—correct misinformation when you encounter it. Make sure people understand: same-sex marriage is still legal today, but active efforts to undermine it are underway. Awareness builds solidarity and reduces complacency.
2. Support LGBTQ+ Legal and Advocacy Organisations: Groups like Lambda Legal, the ACLU, the Human Rights Campaign, and GLAD are defending LGBTQ+ rights in courts and legislatures nationwide. You can:
Donate or set up recurring contributions
Volunteer your skills or time
Amplify their campaigns and petitions on social media
These organisations offer legal guides for same-sex couples, explain protective steps, and provide help desks for advice. We don’t have to fight alone – these allies are experienced and ready.
3. Contact Your Lawmakers – State and Federal: Your voice matters in defending marriage equality laws.
At the federal level, urge Congress to fully enforce the Respect for Marriage Act and resist any attempts to weaken it.
At the state level, push to repeal outdated “one man, one woman” laws and pass proactive protections. If you live in one of the nine states that introduced anti-equality bills in 2025, oppose them loudly: email, call, submit testimony, and organise locally. Lawmakers track constituent feedback on high-profile issues.
4. Vote and Engage in Elections: Elections shape the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court – presidents nominate justices, and the Senate confirms them. Governors and state legislators also decide whether to enforce or resist a potential overturn.
Support candidates who pledge to uphold LGBTQ+ marriage rights.
Vote in all elections – federal, state, and local.
Encourage turnout among younger voters and marginalised communities. Our rights truly are on the ballot.
5. Plan and Protect Your Family Now: Prepare for worst-case scenarios without losing hope:
If you’re an LGBTQ+ couple in a state that might ban same-sex marriage, consider marrying now while the right is secure.
Implement legal safeguards, including wills, powers of attorney, healthcare directives, and second-parent adoptions for children.
Yes, it’s upsetting to plan for these possibilities – but proactive action reduces vulnerability and anxiety.
6. Build Community and Solidarity: Visibility and unity matter.
Join local LGBTQ+ or queer-friendly organisations.
Attend town halls and forums on marriage equality.
Show up for counter-protests or public events defending our rights.
Allies, this is your fight too – speak up. Public pressure and mass mobilisation have stopped discriminatory policies before.
7. Support and Protect One Another Emotionally: The threat to LGBTQ+ legal protections can take a mental toll.
Check in on queer friends, especially non-binary and transgender people
Create safe spaces to share fears and hopes
Celebrate queer joy – defiantly and publicly
From the fight against HIV stigma to the battle for marriage equality in 2015, our community has endured and triumphed through love, activism, and solidarity. We will again.
Conclusion: Hope, Resilience, and Readiness in Defending Marriage Equality
It’s 2025, and we are still debating our fundamental right to love and marry. That reality is both infuriating and heartbreaking. Extremist factions want to roll back LGBTQ+ rights and dismantle the progress we’ve fought for. But we will not meet their attacks with panic – we will meet them with determination, strategy, and unity. Our community knows how to fight for what’s right. We’ve done it for generations.
As a non-binary person, I draw strength from knowing our love and existence have always been acts of defiance against unjust authority. Marriage equality wasn’t gifted to us – it was won through relentless effort. It came from couples who took their fight to court, activists who changed public opinion by telling their stories, and voters who chose love over hate. That hard-earned history cannot be erased by a handful of ideologues without massive public resistance.
The truth is, most Americans support marriage equality. Any attempt to overturn it will face pushback from far beyond the LGBTQ+ community – from families, employers, faith leaders, and neighbours who understand that equality harms no one and strengthens society. Even in states that might revert to bans, there are allies ready to fight to keep discrimination out of the law. We’ve gone from zero states with marriage equality to all 50 in just a decade – that progress is worth defending with everything we have.
Staying vigilant is our best defence. We cannot assume a Supreme Court ruling will stand forever. We must remain active in civic life:
Push for laws and policies that protect same-sex marriage rights.
Hold leaders accountable at every level of government.
Take steps to secure our families legally, so we’re prepared if a serious challenge advances.
But vigilance must be balanced with hope. This isn’t about living in fear – it’s about living in truth and readiness. As Lambda Legal says, taking action is “not about fear–it’s about love, preparedness, and pride.” Our motivation comes from love: for our partners, our families, our community, and the unshakable belief that love is love.
Marriage equality in the United States may be under threat, but it is far from defeated. This is a rallying call for a new generation of LGBTQ+ people and allies to stand up and be counted. We have the tools, the numbers, and the moral high ground. By staying informed, getting involved, and caring for one another, we can—and will—safeguard our right to marry and love freely.
The road ahead may be long, but we march with pride, resilience, and perseverance. Our love has overcome before – and with unity and action, it will overcome again.
Stay strong, stay proud, and stay active. The story of marriage equality is still being written, and we are the authors of its next chapter. Together, we can ensure that the chapter is one of continued freedom, equality, and love triumphing over hate.
